CHAPTER ONE
BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Introduction
The origins of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are deeply rooted in the geopolitical shifts that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.1 When Ukraine declared independence, it triggered a profound struggle within Russia to come to terms with its reduced influence, not only in Ukraine but across the former Soviet space.2 Russia, which had historically regarded Ukraine as integral to its imperial and geopolitical identity, was now confronted with a sovereign neighbor intent on charting its own course, often in opposition to Moscow’s strategic interests.3 This struggle became the basis for the conflict that would intensify over the next two decades, with Russia seeking to reassert its dominance and Ukraine striving to secure its independence and align with Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union.4
The post-Soviet period in Russia was marked by significant internal turmoil, where many Russians grappled with a profound sense of loss and humiliation, often referred to as the “Versailles syndrome.”5 This psychological parallel with Germany’s reaction to defeat in World War I after the Treaty of Versailles fueled nationalist and neo-imperialist sentiments within Russian society.6 For many in Russia, particularly within political elites and intellectual circles, the collapse of the Soviet Union represented not just a geopolitical disaster but also a historical injustice that needed rectifying.7 This belief system, deeply rooted in a desire to reclaim lost territories and restore Russia’s great power status, shaped much of Russia’s foreign policy toward Ukraine8. Vladimir Putin himself famously referred to the collapse of the USSR as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century,” signaling the official embrace of these views in Russia’s political rhetoric.9
From the 1990s onward, Ukraine and Russia experienced a series of contentious disputes over a range of issues, starting with Ukraine’s refusal to fully integrate into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a union largely seen as a mechanism for Russia to exert influence over post-Soviet states.10 Ukraine’s ambivalence toward this union, and its insistence on political independence, was met with growing dissatisfaction from Moscow. Other points of contention emerged, including disagreements over the status of Crimea, the division of the Black Sea Fleet, and the delimitation of the Ukrainian-Russian border, particularly in the strategic areas of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. These unresolved issues would later become flashpoints in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent military confrontations. The early 2000s saw a significant escalation in tensions, driven in part by Ukraine’s increasing alignment with Western institutions. The 2004 Orange Revolution, in which pro-European factions in Ukraine challenged Russian influence, marked a decisive turning point. Moscow viewed the revolution, and the subsequent victory of pro-Western leaders, as a personal defeat for President Putin and a direct threat to Russia’s sphere of influence.
This period also saw the first inklings of separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine, with Russia covertly supporting efforts to create a “South-Eastern Republic” in response to Ukraine’s political shift toward the West. Although these movements did not succeed at the time, they laid the groundwork for future efforts to destabilize Ukraine and prevent its integration with Western Europe. A critical factor in the growing rift between Ukraine and Russia was Ukraine’s aspirations for closer ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Ukraine had been engaging in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program since the 1990s and signed the NATO-Ukraine Charter on a Distinctive Partnership in 1997. By the mid-2000s, Ukraine was increasingly seen as a potential candidate for NATO membership, a prospect that alarmed Russia. Despite assurances from NATO that Ukraine would eventually join the alliance; the 2008 Bucharest Summit did not grant Ukraine a Membership Action Plan (MAP), partly due to Russia’s vehement opposition. This delay, however, did little to quell Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions, further alienating Moscow.
The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict can also be traced to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, an event that sent shockwaves through the post-Soviet space. Ukraine, in particular, reacted strongly to Russia’s actions, with many Ukrainians fearing that their country could be next on Moscow’s list of targets. This fear was not unfounded, as evidenced by Russia’s aggressive response to Ukraine’s continuing efforts to integrate with the West. These geopolitical tensions came to a head in 2013 when the Ukrainian government, under pressure from Russia, announced the postponement of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. This decision triggered the Euromaidan protests and ultimately led to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, which resulted in the ousting of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine marked a significant escalation from hybrid warfare to outright military aggression. The annexation violated several international agreements, including the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which had recognized Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. This act of aggression was followed by Russia’s covert and overt support for separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, sparking a protracted conflict in Eastern Ukraine that would continue for years. Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics combining conventional military force with cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and political subversion highlighted its broader strategy of destabilizing Ukraine and preventing its further integration with Western institutions11. By 2014, the historical trajectory of Russian-Ukrainian relations had reached a critical juncture, with Moscow’s neo-imperialist ambitions clashing violently with Kiev’s pro-Western aspirations.
The events of this period set the stage for the full-scale war that erupted in 2022, underscoring the long-standing and deep-seated nature of the conflict.12 Understanding the historical context of Russian-Ukrainian relations between 1991 and 2014 is crucial for analyzing the ongoing war, as it reveals the geopolitical, ideological, and historical dynamics that have shaped the current conflict. This research seeks to explore the historicity of the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on the key developments and tensions that unfolded between 1991 and 2014, offering insight into the enduring causes of this conflict and its implications for the future of the region.
Aims and Objectives
The aim of this research project is to explore the historical roots of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, focusing on the period from 1991 to 2014. While the specific objectives include:
- To trace the historical evolution of Russian-Ukrainian relations post-1991.
- To analyze the geopolitical and ideological motivations behind Russia’s foreign policy toward Ukraine.
- To assess key flashpoints, including Ukraine’s pursuit of Euro-Atlantic integration and Russia’s neo-imperialist aspirations.
- To evaluate the impact of the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas on both regional and international security.